Abstract :
We constructed five possible scenarios, with an increase of 1°C above current conditions and up to 5°C, to define
the possible impacts of global climate change on evaporation and soil water moisture content deficiency in the selected Northwestern Mexico basins, based on forecasts of the Hadley Centre. We constructed five possible scenarios for two cover surfaces: water and short grass. In these scenarios, the evaporation will increase between 2.1% and 15%.The evaporation of short grass surfaces will increase between 2.2% and 15.5%.Soil water moisture content deficiency will increase between 4.1% and 35%, all of these compared with the current values. In this study, we observed that the forecasted increases in the annual rainfall in the basins that we analyzed, has a modest contribution in reducing the potential evaporation in the Northwestern Mexico basins. In the most adverse scenario, reductions in food production will be in the order of 31%, composed by a need for 15.5% of additional water that the crops will require for their growth and an additional 15% of potential evaporation coming from existing water surface storages. These results indicate an urgent implementation of measures to mitigate the adverse effects of global climate change impacts in the Northwestern Mexico basins.
Author Name : Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor, Maria E. Raynal-Gutierrez, Jose A. Vazquez-Garay1 & Celina Sanchez-Sanchez
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.887995
Keywords: Global climate change, potential evaporation, soil water moisture content deficiency, water, short grass, reduction of food production.
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